Words are the New Numbers: A Newsy Coincident Index of the Business Cycle

I construct a daily business cycle index based on quarterly GDP growth and textual information contained in a daily business newspaper. The newspaper data are decomposed into time series representing news topics, while the business cycle index is estimated using the topics and a time-varying dynamic factor model where dynamic sparsity is enforced upon the factor loadings using a latent threshold mechanism. The resulting index classifies the phases of the business cycle with almost perfect accuracy and provides broad-based high-frequency information about the type of news that drive or reflect economic fluctuations. In out-of-sample nowcasting experiments, the model is competitive with forecast combination systems and expert judgment, and produces forecasts with predictive power for future revisions in GDP. Thus, news reduces noise. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

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PID https://www.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.6949502
PID https://www.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.6949502.v1
PID https://www.doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2018.1506344
URL https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2901452
URL https://brage.bibsys.no/xmlui/handle/11250/2495606
URL https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bny:wpaper:0044
URL https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/07350015.2018.1506344
URL http://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.6949502
URL https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/2337441499
URL https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07350015.2018.1506344
URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2018.1506344
URL https://ideas.repec.org/p/bny/wpaper/0044.html
URL https://biopen.bi.no/bi-xmlui/handle/11250/2429265
URL https://amstat.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07350015.2018.1506344
URL http://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.6949502.v1
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Author Thorsrud, Leif Anders
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Collected From Datacite; figshare; Crossref; Microsoft Academic Graph
Hosted By Journal of Business and Economic Statistics; figshare
Publication Date 2018-01-01
Publisher Taylor & Francis
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Language UNKNOWN
Resource Type Other literature type; Article
keyword FOS: Health sciences
keyword FOS: Sociology
keyword keywords.Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
keyword FOS: Biological sciences
keyword FOS: Computer and information sciences
keyword FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences
system:type publication
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Source https://science-innovation-policy.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=dedup_wf_001::e44016a9d10135bc6f5436d890707d93
Author jsonws_user
Last Updated 22 December 2020, 15:51 (CET)
Created 22 December 2020, 15:51 (CET)