Unravelling uncertainty and variability in early stage techno-economic assessments of carbon capture technologies

This paper addresses the uncertainty and variability in techno-economic studies of carbon capture technologies, based on a detailed comparison of the results of different studies on postcombustion CO2 capture with advanced amines, and on an in-depth uncertainty analysis using a combination of sensitivity and pedigree analyses. The results show that despite efforts to harmonize capital cost estimates, the capital cost results of the same PCC carbon capture systems can still show large (65%) differences. This uncertainty may simply be inherent to early stage cost estimates. Amongst the most important causes for the variability shown in this work are differences in equipment sizing methods and purchased equipment cost estimates. This capital cost variability only mildly propagates into the Levelised Cost of Electricity and Cost of CO2 Avoided, more so in case of low power plant utilisation scenarios. To enhance insight into these uncertainties and enable their communication, the paper argues to use in-depth uncertainty evaluation for early stage techno-economic studies. It suggests to complement current practice of sensitivity analysis with pedigree analysis and to combine the results of both analyses in diagnostic diagrams. This may lead to more informed interpretation of the results of techno-economic studies, and helps focus techno-economic research efforts towards the parameters that most influence final performance indicators. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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PID urn:URN:NBN:NL:UI:10-1874-347922
PID urn:urn:nbn:nl:ui:11-bb11e19b-342f-4c66-93f4-97223e607f7d
PID handle:11370/bb11e19b-342f-4c66-93f4-97223e607f7d
PID https://www.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2016.11.021
URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2016.11.021
URL https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/347922
URL https://www.rug.nl/research/portal/en/publications/unravelling-uncertainty-and-variability-in-early-stage-technoeconomic-assessments-of-carbon-capture-technologies(bb11e19b-342f-4c66-93f4-97223e607f7d).html
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Author van der Spek, Mijndert
Author Fernandez, Eva Sanchez
Author Eldrup, Nils Henrik
Author Skagestad, Ragnhild
Author Ramirez, Andrea
Author Faaij, Andre
Contributor Integrated Research on Energy, Environment and Soc
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Hosted By Utrecht University Repository; NARCIS; University of Groningen Digital Archive
Journal International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 56,
Publication Date 2017-01-01
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Country Netherlands
Format image/pdf
Language English
Resource Type Article
keyword Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
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Source https://science-innovation-policy.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=dedup_wf_001::ba8ba8db654ef359f6afd3a39b9578a2
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Last Updated 26 December 2020, 06:31 (CET)
Created 26 December 2020, 06:31 (CET)