A Computational Approach to Measuring Vote Elasticity and Competitiveness

The recent wave of attention to partisan gerrymandering has come with a push to refine or replace the laws that govern political redistricting around the country. A common element in several states' reform efforts has been the inclusion of competitiveness metrics, or scores that evaluate a districting plan based on the extent to which district-level outcomes are in play or are likely to be closely contested. In this paper, we examine several classes of competitiveness metrics motivated by recent reform proposals and then evaluate their potential outcomes across large ensembles of districting plans at the Congressional and state Senate levels. This is part of a growing literature using MCMC techniques from applied statistics to situate plans and criteria in the context of valid redistricting alternatives. Our empirical analysis focuses on five states---Utah, Georgia, Wisconsin, Virginia, and Massachusetts---chosen to represent a range of partisan attributes. We highlight situation-specific difficulties in creating good competitiveness metrics and show that optimizing competitiveness can produce unintended consequences on other partisan metrics. These results demonstrate the importance of (1) avoiding writing detailed metric constraints into long-lasting constitutional reform and (2) carrying out careful mathematical modeling on real geo-electoral data in each redistricting cycle.

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PID https://www.doi.org/10.1080/2330443x.2020.1777915
PID arXiv:2005.12731
URL https://amstat.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/2330443X.2020.1777915
URL https://doaj.org/toc/2330-443X
URL http://arxiv.org/abs/2005.12731
URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/2330443x.2020.1777915
URL https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/2330443X.2020.1777915
URL https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/3035025356
URL https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/2330443X.2020.1777915
URL https://dblp.uni-trier.de/db/journals/corr/corr2005.html#abs-2005-12731
URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/2330443X.2020.1777915
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Access Right Open Access
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Author Daryl DeFord
Author Moon Duchin
Author Justin Solomon
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Collected From arXiv.org e-Print Archive; DOAJ-Articles; Crossref; Microsoft Academic Graph
Hosted By arXiv.org e-Print Archive; Statistics and Public Policy
Journal Statistics and Public Policy, ,
Publication Date 2020-05-26
Publisher Taylor & Francis Group
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Description Comment: 38 pages, 8 figures, 5 tables
Language English
Resource Type Article; Preprint
keyword 05C90, 60J20, 62P25, 91F10
system:type publication
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Source https://science-innovation-policy.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=dedup_wf_001::b66a1e7a9f79bb63cdc579f6e7f78bee
Author jsonws_user
Last Updated 23 December 2020, 13:31 (CET)
Created 23 December 2020, 13:31 (CET)