Development of a prediction model for bacteremia in hospitalized adults with cellulitis to aid in the efficient use of blood cultures: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract Background Cellulitis is a common infectious disease. Although blood culture is frequently used in the diagnosis and subsequent treatment of cellulitis, it is a contentious diagnostic test. To help clinicians determine which patients should undergo blood culture for the management of cellulitis, a diagnostic scoring system referred to as the Bacteremia Score of Cellulitis was developed. Methods Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed as part of a retrospective cohort study of all adults diagnosed with cellulitis in a tertiary teaching hospital in Taiwan in 2013. Patients who underwent blood culture were used to develop a diagnostic prediction model where the main outcome measures were true bacteremia in cellulitis cases. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was used to demonstrate the predictive power of the model, and bootstrapping was then used to validate the performance. Results Three hundred fifty one cases with cellulitis who underwent blood culture were enrolled. The overall prevalence of true bacteremia was 33/351 cases (9.4 %). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed optimal diagnostic discrimination for the combination of age ≥65 years (odds ratio [OR] = 3.9; 95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.5–10.1), involvement of non-lower extremities (OR = 4.0; 95 % CI, 1.5–10.6), liver cirrhosis (OR = 6.8; 95 % CI, 1.8–25.3), and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) (OR = 15.2; 95 % CI, 4.8–48.0). These four independent factors were included in the initial formula, and the AUC for this combination of factors was 0.867 (95 % CI, 0.806–0.928). The rounded formula was 1 × (age ≥65 years) + 1.5 × (involvement of non-lower extremities) + 2 × (liver cirrhosis) + 2.5 × (SIRS). The overall prevalence of true bacteremia (9.4 %) in this study could be lowered to 1.0 % (low risk group, score ≤1.5) or raised to 14.7 % (medium risk group, score 2–3.5) and 41.2 % (high risk group, score ≥4.0), depending on different clinical scores. Conclusions Determining the risk of bacteremia in patients with cellulitis will allow a more efficient use of blood cultures in the diagnosis and treatment of this condition. External validation of this preliminary scoring system in future trials is needed to optimize the test.

Tags
Data and Resources
To access the resources you must log in

This item has no data

Identity

Description: The Identity category includes attributes that support the identification of the resource.

Field Value
PID https://www.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3620036
PID https://www.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3620036.v1
URL http://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3620036
URL http://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3620036.v1
Access Modality

Description: The Access Modality category includes attributes that report the modality of exploitation of the resource.

Field Value
Access Right not available
Attribution

Description: Authorships and contributors

Field Value
Author Lee, Chun-Yuan
Author Kunin, Calvin
Author Chang, Chung
Author Lee, Susan
Author Chen, Yao-Shen
Author Hung-Chin Tsai
Publishing

Description: Attributes about the publishing venue (e.g. journal) and deposit location (e.g. repository)

Field Value
Collected From Datacite
Hosted By figshare
Publication Date 2016-01-01
Publisher Figshare
Additional Info
Field Value
Language UNKNOWN
Resource Type Collection
keyword FOS: Biological sciences
keyword FOS: Mathematics
keyword FOS: Clinical medicine
system:type other
Management Info
Field Value
Source https://science-innovation-policy.openaire.eu/search/other?orpId=dedup_wf_001::a8bb98ed4f89e2d99d23ebbd048581f5
Author jsonws_user
Last Updated 20 December 2020, 03:26 (CET)
Created 20 December 2020, 03:26 (CET)