frameworks, challenges and gaps

Integrated Environmental Models (IEMs) incorporating ecosystem services (ES) can be useful tools to support the decision-making. However, their successful application strongly depends upon the confidence decision-makers can place in their outputs. Uncertainty analysis (UA), including uncertainty location, identification, characterization, treatment and communication to decision-makers, can increase their confidence in the used model. To support the use of UA in practice we first focus on the purpose, concepts and methods underpinning UA in environmental modelling. As a main contribution, we then review existing UA frameworks and their coverage, before reviewing the current practice of performing UA for a set of 25 IEM tools. Based on our review we derive and discuss four perceived challenges and gaps whose significance may vary in different contexts: (1) the lack of consensus on terminologies for uncertainty locations; (2) characterization of uncertainty locations beyond variables; (3) treatment of heterogeneous uncertainty; and (4) the lack of a practical framework toward uncertainty communication. We suggest some steps forward for each of these challenges aiming at facilitating the application of UA to IEMs.

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PID https://www.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.08.007
PID urn:urn:nbn:nl:ui:25-e657db12-972c-4b23-a0c2-f76075438078
URL https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S2212041617306459?httpAccept=text/plain
URL https://www.narcis.nl/publication/RecordID/oai%3Apure.tue.nl%3Apublications%2Fe657db12-972c-4b23-a0c2-f76075438078
URL https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/2890979490
URL https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212041617306459
URL https://pubag.nal.usda.gov/catalog/6184339
URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.08.007
URL https://tue-staging.elsevierpure.com/en/publications/uncertainty-analysis-in-integrated-environmental-models-for-ecosy
URL http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85053006152&partnerID=8YFLogxK
URL https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecoser/v33y2018ipbp110-123.html
URL https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S2212041617306459?httpAccept=text/xml
URL https://research.tue.nl/nl/publications/uncertainty-analysis-in-integrated-environmental-models-for-ecosystem-service-assessments(e657db12-972c-4b23-a0c2-f76075438078).html
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Author Baustert, Paul
Author Othoniel, Benoit
Author Rugani, Benedetto, 0000-0002-3525-1382
Author Leopold, Ulrich, 0000-0003-0059-6134
Contributor Real Estate and Urban Development
Contributor Urban Planning and Transportation
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Collected From ORCID; Datacite; Crossref; NARCIS; Microsoft Academic Graph
Hosted By Ecosystem Services; Repository TU/e; NARCIS
Journal Ecosystem Services, 33, null
Publication Date 2018-10-01
Publisher Elsevier BV
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Country Netherlands
Language Undetermined
Resource Type Other literature type; Article
keyword keywords.Geography, Planning and Development
keyword keywords.Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
system:type publication
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Source https://science-innovation-policy.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=dedup_wf_001::5de2f860b544c6803265bf2f708fb8b6
Author jsonws_user
Last Updated 27 December 2020, 01:42 (CET)
Created 27 December 2020, 01:42 (CET)