Formal comment on "Assessing the impact of the ‘one-child policy’ in China: A synthetic control approach"

For nearly half a century, parents in China have faced compulsory quotas allowing them to have no more than one or two children. A great debate in recent years over the impact of this program on China's population continues in PLOS ONE with the publication of Gietel-Basten et al. (2019). The core question concerns how much higher China's birth rates might have been had birth quotas not been enacted and enforced. Gietel-Basten et al. argue that the selection of such comparators in recent studies may reflect subjective choices. They profess to avoid such subjectivities by using what they present to be a more scientific, objective, and transparent statistical approach that calculates a weighted average of birth rates of countries with other characteristics similar to China's. Yet the authors make subjective choices regarding the non-fertility characteristics used to form their comparators which leads to an underestimation of the impact of birth planning. Moreover, their visual presentation, which focuses on the two key sub-phases of the birth program, underrepresents its overall impact. Their comparators suggest that China's population today would be just 15 million more had it not enacted any birth restrictions since 1970 (one percent above its current population) and that in the absence of one-child limits, which began in 1979, China's population would be 70 million less. At the same time, the authors acknowledge that the one-child program has had numerous negative consequences. It seems fair to ask how such consequences could result if the program had no significant impact on childbearing decisions.

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PID https://www.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0222705
PID pmc:PMC6834372
PID pmid:31693668
URL https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6834372
URL http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC6834372
URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0222705
URL https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31693668/
URL https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203
URL https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0222705
URL https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/2983989661
URL https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0222705
URL https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0222705
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Access Right Open Access
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Author Goodkind, Daniel, 0000-0002-3413-3085
Contributor Masquelier, Bruno
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Collected From PubMed Central; UnpayWall; Datacite; DOAJ-Articles; Crossref; Microsoft Academic Graph
Hosted By Europe PubMed Central; PLoS ONE
Journal PLOS ONE, 14, null
Publication Date 2019-11-06
Publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
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Resource Type Other literature type; Article
keyword Q
keyword R
keyword keywords.General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
system:type publication
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Source https://science-innovation-policy.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=dedup_wf_001::5a139505f8b29ddce9a8a7ea585797df
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Last Updated 24 December 2020, 17:22 (CET)
Created 24 December 2020, 17:22 (CET)