Praying for Rain? Water Scarcity and the Duration and Outcomes of Civil Wars

Recent anecdotal evidence from the civil wars in Somalia and Yemen suggest that water scarcity may shape the dynamics of civil wars. While a considerable body of research has examined the connection between water scarcity (such as low rainfall) and the onset of civil war, very little research has examined how water scarcity may shape the duration and outcomes of civil wars. Looking specifically at rainfall, this paper argues that changes in access to water play a key role in the duration of civil wars. As rainfall declines, there is a reduction in resources available to both the government and the rebel group, leading to a stalemate in fighting. Furthermore, this paper argues that declines in rainfall are felt more acutely by rebel groups who seek to challenge the government through conventional warfare. This paper tests these propositions using hazard models. The results provide robust support for the propositions.

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PID https://www.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.4970093
PID https://www.doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2017.1320184
PID https://www.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.4970093.v1
URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2017.1320184
URL https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/defpea/v30y2019i1p27-45.html
URL https://academic.microsoft.com/#/detail/2610840879
URL https://core.ac.uk/display/149534964
URL http://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.4970093.v1
URL http://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.4970093
URL https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/10242694.2017.1320184
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Access Right Open Access
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Author Keels, Eric
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Collected From Datacite; figshare; Crossref; Microsoft Academic Graph
Hosted By Defence and Peace Economics; figshare
Publication Date 2017-05-04
Publisher Taylor & Francis
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Language UNKNOWN
Resource Type Other literature type; Article
keyword FOS: Sociology
keyword FOS: Biological sciences
keyword FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences
system:type publication
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Source https://science-innovation-policy.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=dedup_wf_001::281a4bd32751fc4103370da4aea25041
Author jsonws_user
Last Updated 27 December 2020, 03:02 (CET)
Created 27 December 2020, 03:02 (CET)